Bitcoin price may still drop 40% after FTX ‘Lehman moment’ — Analysis

Bitcoin price may still drop 40% after FTX ‘Lehman moment’ — Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) noticed a recent rejection at $17,000 on Nov. 18 as nervous markets weathered extra FTX fallout.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

BTC will get a $12,000 price goal

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed BTC/USD failing to flip $17,000 to assist — a development in place for nearly every week.

The pair, like main altcoins, remained firmly tied down by chilly ft over the FTX debacle and its knock-on results for numerous crypto companies.

For analysts, the outlook remained simply as grim, with already dismal forecasts worsening in mild of current occasions.

“This underperformance of all crypto assets is here to stay until the bulk of uncertainly has cleared up — likely only near the turn of the new year,” buying and selling agency QCP Capital wrote in its newest round to Telegram channel subscribers on the day.

In an intensive market abstract, QCP wrote that its price forecasts for each Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) now needed to drop to replicate the impression of FTX.

Updating a prognosis primarily based on Elliott Wave idea from June, it confirmed BTC/USD now had a goal of $12,000 and ETH/USD $800.

“As a side-note, crypto markets have been trading akin to commodities ever since the 2017 top — with extended Wave 5s as the longest wave,” the put up added.

“Hence such potential price action with new lows into the new year would be characteristic of previous bear market sell-offs.”

An accompanying chart highlighted the divergence between crypto and shares in November, with th correlation between them firmly shaken because of crypto’s underperformance.

BTC/USD vs. ETH/USD vs. S&P 500 chart. Source: QCP Capital

Popular dealer and analyst Cantering Clark, in the meantime, famous that if the present bear market in danger belongings had been to repeat the worldwide monetary disaster, heavy losses had been still to return.

“The Lehman bankruptcy was the climax of the 2008 financial crisis. It was bottom material qualitatively, but the market paused and then committed to 40% lower,” a part of a tweet learn.

“Never say never, and don’t let your guard down.”

S&P 500 annotated chart. Source: Cantering Clark/Twitter

As Cointelegraph reported, $13,500 has additionally turn into a well-liked draw back goal.

Crypto pie “being cut massively”

Continuing, QCP additionally voiced considerations over declining volumes and open curiosity (OI) throughout each centralized (CEXs) and decentralized (DEXs) exchanges.

Related: US crypto exchanges lead Bitcoin exodus: Over $1.5B in BTC withdrawn in a single week

“So far, CEX derivative exchange volumes have been most affected. Combined futures OI is now back to pre-2021 levels, a massive backward step for the industry,” it wrote.

Bitcoin futures open curiosity chart. Source: QCP Capital

On the subject of DEXs, it stated the info “implies the entire crypto pie is being cut massively.”

“Overall DeFi TVL is now less than 1/4 last year’s peak!” the put up summarized alongside extra explanatory charts.

“Even DEXes which would be expected to gain the most, have only seen volumes rise to Jul/Aug levels, even with all the emergency token/stables/chain swapping that needed to be done post-FTX.”

DEX volumes chart. Source: QCP Capital

The views and opinions expressed listed here are solely these of the writer and don’t essentially replicate the views of Every funding and buying and selling transfer includes danger, you must conduct your personal analysis when making a choice.

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